Old and new

First a recap and apology.  On my last post from 2/19/13 I recommended YRCW at around 6.50.  We actually got stopped out at 5.9.  Sorry that I didn't repost but the action turned up and I jumped in around 7 again.  It went to 36 though I sold out much of it in the 15-20 range.  Anyway, general instincts were right though exact numbers were off regarding the stop.  Sorry.  I'm done with this trade but still watching Yellow as there is still great potential.

WMB dropped a bit but not the 15-20% I was looking for.

OWW, I recommended at around $3.30. It went as high as 13 but is now around 9.8.  Long term I think it is good but it may have more retrace down to 6-7 range.

Now for a new one.  RIG is bouncing off of a 19 year trendline and has had pretty regular 9 year bottom cycles.  It also has a pretty nice Elliott wave pattern that is a near duplicate of its retrace from 2002 to 2003.  For those appreciating the technicals, it is a flat correction since the low at the end of 2011.  Long term conservative players should wait until it has a weekly close above 58.  The stop is below that big trendline with the blue arrows, around 44.  Target is around 200 over the next 5 years.  Some January 2015 call options with strike price are about $4.00.  I suspect they'll be worth at least $30 by the end of next year.

For those still reading, could you please send me an email to let me know that you received this.  My blogger dashboard is screwy and I'm not sure who is on the list anymore.  also, if you are joining me on this trade, please let me know as it will prompt me to do more updates.

click on the chart below to see it's full extent which is beyond the small frame seen.

p.s. I am not a professional.  trade at your own risk.

WMT, YRCW, WMB, OWW

Well, we got stopped out of WMT around 69.50 (accounting for opening gap) for only a small percentage gain. WMT is now off the table. 

YRCW is behaving well. Still a chance of a drop to 6.45 which is a buy point. 5.90 stop still in effect.

Technicals strongly suggest WMB is going for a 15-20% dive over the next few months. Short term is a little uncertain as some parameters suggest a short term top at 36.6, but more likely a drop with tomorrows earnings report. It closed today at 35.45 but lost all of it and some in after hours trading. The P/E is 33 and industry average is 10. It has had 4 straight quarters of declining revenues. 

OWW is looking strong. It recently had a good earnings report despite a very large one time charge. It is up over 20% in the last week. This is one I believe could be tripling over the next couple of years.

Adjust WMT stop and buy YRCW

New Stop for WMT is $69.90.


Now keeping an eye on YRCW.  This shipping company has been a dog of the industry but recently reported positive annual operating income for the first time in six years.  On the technical side, it has a clear elliott five wave impulse up and a 61.8% retracement.  This is a buy with a stop at $5.9.  Initial target is around $9.00 but it could go much higher.

Adjust WMT stop.

New Stop for WMT is $68.25

Wal Mart is a Go

WMT closed above 68.80 today so the trade is on.  Although the Elliott pattern did not go exactly as I expected, it stayed within the needed parameters so that we can expect WMT to have another up leg over the next couple of months.  Target is 72-74.  Place a stop at 67.45.  

Walmart has a nice 1-2,1-2,1-2 elliottwave set up including an impulse wave with THREE 61.8% retracements.  In addition, it is at 50 week MA support and 18 month weekly trendline support (2nd chart).  Target is 74 in 2-3 months.  A close above 68.80 indicates it is a go.

Resounding Failure

Wow, that was just about as bad a call as one could make.  One day later, stopped out on CLF.  Oh well back to the drawing board after a painful drawdown.