OWW winner, SXL going down. Silvers may be bouncing from Retrace.

My target for Orbitz was $13-15 but since Expedia has offered to buy it for $12, we will settle for the 11.55 current price and exit.  My advisor said it may be in limbo while details of the buyout are settled. Anyway, that was a 35 % gain on the stock from the $8.50 buy price and better on the 7.5 options bought for $1.3, sold at $4.00

I mentioned oil stocks in the last post and they have been doing a rebound upward as I thought, but took a turn down in the last week.  As a group, I am not sure if they have some more back and forth in a 10-15% range for a few more months or if they are ready for the next leg down.  However there is one oil stock that looks perfectly poised for a 30% drop.  SXL (chart below) has a beautiful 61.8% retrace in classic A-B-C Elliott pattern to the 46 level. It has confirmed a turn down with weekly and daily oscillators.  The target is $30-32 in 3-5 months. Shorting is an options play for me so I am going to pick up some April 45 puts at around $2.50. Depending on what path it takes, they will be worth $5 -10 by mid April.  Risk management will have me sell half of them for $5 and let the rest ride to $8-10. This is a 90% trade. The stop is if the stock hits 46.5 which would probably cut the option price in half.  So risk a 50% loss for about a 200% gain.

The silvers ran into some resistance mid January and have been on a leg down since then, though Hecla is holding up well relative to the field. I have tight stops on my miners which are at a support level but have yet to fully declare whether they are ready for a 3rd wave up or need one more 10% drop.  Either way, HL is a long term play and is looking good.

Winning hand so far.

Orbitz has moved up as predicted on my last post.  Recommended at 8.50, now at 9.95, up 17% .  Target is $13-14.

Hecla continues to climb with the rest of the miners and the metals.  Up from around 2.80 on my initial post to close at $3.26 today for a 16% gain since 12/21. Target initially about 5, long term above 12.

Oil stocks look to be in a retrace upward. look for around 2 weeks of Exxon and Chevron and the others moving up.  Then I'll be looking for a turn down again.

Orbitz and Hecla

Two lovely set ups for low priced stocks.  Orbitz (OWW) has been consolidating for a year and a half in what looks like a 4th wave triangle.  It has trendline and 100 week MA support as well as upward momentum on multiple time frames. Buying anywhere from $8-9.  Stop at $7.15 and target of $13-15 which should be good for a 50% gain.

Hecla (HL) has had steady or increasing earnings as silver has dropped about 50% over the last couple of years. $2 has been solid support which includes 15 year trendline support. Average weekly volume for the last several years has been around 40 million shares. Last week it was 125 million and the Friday volume was 79 million, approximately 10 times the average daily volume. Stop is at 2.19. Target is $9 which would be a triple, but it has potential for even higher than that.  It's got some hurdles in that most moving averages are above it, but my gut says that it will be slicing through those fairly easily.  

In my last post from July I predicted Gold heading down from the 1350 range to 1000.  It made it's way to 1130 and has meandered higher from there.  Hard to say for sure if the low is in, but I think silver and gold are at or near intermediate term lows so watch for their rise over the next year as well as many of the miners. 

I am not a professional. Trade at your own risk. 

Gold dropping to 1000 highly likely, but not right away.

There is a high likelihood that $GOLD is tracing out a consolidating triangle pattern and reaching channel resistance that would result in its long term downward trend that started in 2011 continuing. This is not confirmed at this point in time but appears to be setting up.  If this is correct, then $GOLD will find stiff resistance at 1375-1385 and we will see weekly momentum and cycle indicators turn down.  What is particularly sweet about this is that exits from triangles are usually sharp.  In Elliott wave parlance they are called thrusts because they move so fast. The way I charted it, gold is finishing the E wave.  However, it may still be in a C wave which means the triangle could drag on for another year.  There is also a possibility that it is not a triangle but a 1-2,1-2 and gold will continue upward toward 1500 but this is less likely. We will just have to wait and see.  If it does turn out to be a triangle, you will be looking at a 25-30% move in a relatively short time period and that can spell very good
m-o-n-e-y.

That is a sharp retrace.

IBM put on about $7 in two days for a nice win.  This is an example of how every once in a while an Elliott wave pattern is useful.   It is now at resistance around 188 - 190 so taking 80% off the table.
AXP is still in play to go to 98-100. stop at 94.
MCD was the slow mover with a down day today to trend-line support.  Therefore, this is now a good risk/reward ratio. Should spring up to 105 in a couple of weeks.  Stop at 99.5 minimizes loss.

a few 5 percenters

The trend is still up in many stocks though weekly momentum is starting to wane.  A few stocks in particular look pretty good for adding 5% in the next few weeks.  

American Express (AXP) looks to be coming out of a 3 week sideways consolidation and should head toward 100. I'm buying between 94.10 and 95 with a stop at 93.5.  Expecting similar action from MCD though it may be a little slower to move since the daily momentum hasn't turned up yet.

IBM is looking like a high probability to head up to 186-190 from the 181 level.  What is particularly interesting about this one is that it may be coming out of an Elliott wave diagonal and these usually result in a pretty sharp reversal.  Thus an option play could result in some nice profits. 182.50 strike price calls expiring 7/11 are selling for a buck and should hit around $3. 

On the short side, one would have expected GM to be dropping over the last month or two with all of the recalls, but it appears to have needed to make a retracement from the 5 waves down it did January to April. Now it has completed an ABC to near 61.8%. December 35 puts are $2 and should go to $7 since the target is $28 for the stock.  Stop at 38. 

Trade at your own risk.  I am not a professional.

Weekly charts win

The weekly charts have handily beat out the daily downtrend.  New high in Nasdaq very likely.

Tiffany was a classic example in the markets that anything can happen despite the best technical set up.  CSCO to 27.