DD took awhile, Next CLF for 40% gain

For the Dupont prediction I was right and I was wrong.  It recently hit 42 but instead of taking 1-2 months, it took 4 1/2 months and we got stopped out at 50.70.  If you are joining in on a trade, please send me an email and I will update the page or communicate directly with you as things develop.  

Next we are looking to CLF which has 1. Multiyear trendline support, 2. recent hammer candlestick, 

3. long term RSI and MACD divergence and 4. probable Elliott wave flat correction since September.  Target 50, Stop at 32.20 for potential gain of 40% with risk of about 10 % loss.  This should take about 2-3 months.

Short DD

This is an 80-90% probability trade.  Short Dupont.

Dupont (DD) has been maintaining a pattern of lower highs since early 2011.  There are numerous technical factors strongly suggesting that it will lose about 15% of it's value over the next 1-2 months.  In June it made a 61.8% retracement of the drop it had from April to early June and since mid June has done another 61.8% retrace, very classic Fibonacci ratios.  Click on the attached chart to enlarge it and to see additional information.

BA success, next CSX

Since the last post, my prediction of Boeing rising from 64 to 68.75 occurred though it took about 3 weeks. It rose to about 73 and still has strength, but I am unsure of it's next move. QQQQ moved to 57 as I suggested. Next I am looking at CSX which has many technical factors (see chart) suggesting that it should go to around $73.50 with a few weeks. It's last trade was 69.70. March 70 call options now selling for around $1.90 should double. Buying the stock outright should result in around a 5% gain.

BA to 68.75

Back in August when I strongly suggested that the markets were about to turn over and the next bear leg was beginning, I was wrong. I mentioned that if the QQQQ moved with strength above 47 that the downside was off for the time being. Upward momentum is now waning, but I believe there is still potential for a few percent rise in the markets. The Dow Industrials may be looking to touch the 11,750 range which was the 2000 high. On the short term, Boeing (BA) has a decent looking Elliott wave form and some short term upward momentum (caveat.... daily momentum has not turned up yet). I predict that BA will move up to 68.75 within the next week or two. Next target for the QQQQ is 57.

Head and Shoulders and Elliott waves.

It appears that a "head and shoulders" top has occurred over the last 8 months. It is quite symmetric and the most recent wave up is a beautiful "ending diagonal". If this ending diagonal is the C wave of a flat correction then the next few months will be a very strong move downward. I am 85% confident that this is the correct elliott wave analysis. Only a strong move above 47 in QQQQ would negate this analysis. In the very short term (hours to days), expect QQQQ to go up to 46.25 area before falling hard. Most indices and sectors will join the Nasdaq in this bear market. Do your own due diligence. If you don't find any compelling reasons to stay in the market, then sell your equities and don't expect a significant bottom for a couple of years at least. On my last post I mentioned that BA would go to 71.50 range before turning down. It didn't make it that high and mostly likely will not.

Boeing as a bellweather.

Look for a Boeing (BA) reversal in the 71.50-72 range as a sign that the next leg down is underway.

Out of gas

On my last post I suggested that the S&P 500 could go as high as 1150 during the retracement. I believe that the mid range point of 1131 seen today is the top of the retracement. Numerous factors suggest such. Staying below the trend line is essential for continued bearishness. Next stop should be 950 within a few weeks (25% loss). SDS is a leveraged inverse fund for the S&P 500. Non-leveraged short of the Dow Industrials is DOG.

Caveats: some charts show individual stocks that point to new highs. However, most evidence is to the contrary. Get out!