Monday, July 14, 2014

Gold dropping to 1000 highly likely, but not right away.

There is a high likelihood that $GOLD is tracing out a consolidating triangle pattern and reaching channel resistance that would result in its long term downward trend that started in 2011 continuing. This is not confirmed at this point in time but appears to be setting up.  If this is correct, then $GOLD will find stiff resistance at 1375-1385 and we will see weekly momentum and cycle indicators turn down.  What is particularly sweet about this is that exits from triangles are usually sharp.  In Elliott wave parlance they are called thrusts because they move so fast. The way I charted it, gold is finishing the E wave.  However, it may still be in a C wave which means the triangle could drag on for another year.  There is also a possibility that it is not a triangle but a 1-2,1-2 and gold will continue upward toward 1500 but this is less likely. We will just have to wait and see.  If it does turn out to be a triangle, you will be looking at a 25-30% move in a relatively short time period and that can spell very good
m-o-n-e-y.



Wednesday, July 2, 2014

That is a sharp retrace.

IBM put on about $7 in two days for a nice win.  This is an example of how every once in a while an Elliott wave pattern is useful.   It is now at resistance around 188 - 190 so taking 80% off the table.
AXP is still in play to go to 98-100. stop at 94.
MCD was the slow mover with a down day today to trend-line support.  Therefore, this is now a good risk/reward ratio. Should spring up to 105 in a couple of weeks.  Stop at 99.5 minimizes loss.